Morning Minute: Crypto Rips on Cool CPI - Decrypt

Morning Minute: Crypto Rips on Cool CPI

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner . The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And c heck out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.

📈 Crypto Rips on Cool CPI, but Warsh Won’t Call It a Win

The soft inflation print crypto was waiting for finally landed.

June CPI fell 0.4% month over month , the biggest monthly decline since April 2020, dropping the annual rate to 3.5% from May’s 4.2% and coming in under the 3.8% expected. Core CPI cooled to 2.6%, below forecasts, and was flat on the month.

Crypto squeezed higher within minutes. Bitcoin jumped from around $62,000 to reclaim $64,900 , ETH surged 7% to $1,884, and roughly $300 million in short positions were liquidated as bears got run over.

Notably, this was the last major inflation read before the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting, and it undercuts the rate-hike case that’s been capping the market all summer. The odds of a July rate cut fell from 35% on Polymarket to just 6% in the wake of CPI + Warsh’s commentary. Though odds of at least 1 hike are still ~80% by end of year (down from 90%).

Within hours of the CPI print, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified to Congress, his first appearance since taking over from Powell. The major takeaway from his testimony was his comment that if the Fed gets policy right, the inflation surge of the last five years “will be a thing of the past.” He leaned hard into the AI story too, calling business investment the most striking feature of the economy and predicting that what’s now called “AI investment” will soon just be called “investment,” a view that AI is fundamentally disinflationary.

Warsh: Fed has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation”

“If we get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.” https://t.co/RvCRxzdPuS

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) July 14, 2026

That said, when asked directly about the morning’s CPI data, he pushed back on the optimism, saying some might look at it and declare “mission accomplished,” and then adding flatly, “that is not my view.” He gave no forward guidance, no signal on the next move, and reminded lawmakers the committee has “no tolerance” for elevated inflation. Some (myself included) may interpret that as a bit hawkish, and it does still feel like a rate hike may very well come in 2026.

Perhaps we will learn more at FOMC in 2 weeks. Until then, enjoy the pump…

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