Morning Minute: Bitcoin Headed for Rare Back-to-Back Quarterly Loss - Decrypt

Morning Minute: Bitcoin Headed for Rare Back-to-Back Quarterly Loss

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner . The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And c heck out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.

📉 Bitcoin Headed for Rare Back-to-Back Quarterly Loss

Bitcoin is trading just below $60,000 and is on track for a rare back-to-back quarterly loss.

It’s down roughly 12% this quarter after a 22% drop in Q1, which breaks its historically strong second-quarter pattern, with the quarter and first half both closing Tuesday. The selloff bottomed at a $58,115 low on June 26, a 20-month low, and the bounce since has been shallow.

The causes have been pretty consistent:

The damage runs deeper in altcoins. ETH is down about 25% on the quarter and 47% on the year, and over the past week Dogecoin, XRP, and HYPE all posted double-digit losses. Solana held up a bit better, but is still down 43% on the year.

The back-to-back losses feed the bigger debate over whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is breaking, since a red 2026 would push the usual three-up, one-down rhythm into a second straight down stretch. But the bulls have a chart of their own.

Every time $BTC closed 2 red 6 month candles in a row, it was followed by a 3-year uptrend.

2nd red 6M BTC candle closes in 2 days.

Everybody know what that means. https://t.co/lz4uTuFltH pic.twitter.com/1CzDXJ1XR0

— 𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 (@nobrainflip) June 28, 2026

Every prior time Bitcoin closed two red six-month candles in a row, in 2018 and 2022, it was followed by a three-year uptrend. The second red six-month candle of this stretch closes in two days.

Pair that with a Fear and Greed reading of 18, deep in Extreme Fear, and the setup looks either like the start of a deeper breakdown or the kind of capitulation that has marked past bottoms. Let’s hope it’s the latter…

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