Morning Minute: Bitcoin at $65,000 as Iran Deal Wobbles - Decrypt

Morning Minute: Bitcoin at $65,000 as Iran Deal Wobbles

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner . The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And c heck out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.

📊 Bitcoin Holds Near $65,000 as the Iran Deal Wobbles

Bitcoin rose to $65,000 Monday morning, recovering part of Friday’s drop below $63,000 but finishing roughly flat on the week.

Other crypto majors held steady alongside it:

Fairly uneventful price action, but maybe that’s a win in a week that saw Saylor’s STRC fall to record lows of $83, the ETFs saw $227M in net outflows and the Fear and Greed Index spending the entire week squarely in the Fear zone.

As for macro drivers, the Iran War ceasefire saw a setback. Permanent U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks opened in Switzerland after the deal was signed Friday, a deal that sent oil down 9%. Then Iran ordered the Strait of Hormuz closed again over the weekend, reviving the exact supply risk the agreement was meant to remove. Add the hawkish Warsh Fed and the STRC selloff from last week and Bitcoin / crypto is certainly in a precarious position to start the week.

For now, Bitcoin is consolidating rather than trending, holding above the low $60,000s but unable to reclaim the week’s highs. Until the Iran picture and the Fed path clear up, the range likely holds.

⚖️ CME Sues the CFTC, Arguing Crypto Perps Are Swaps, Not Futures

CME Group, the largest US derivatives exchange, filed a lawsuit against the CFTC on Thursday. They are asking a court to vacate the agency’s approval of Kalshi’s perpetual futures, the first such product cleared in the US back in late May.

CME makes two arguments:

Underneath the legal language is a competitive motive, since CME argues these perps threaten its long-dated futures business, which is the core of what it does.

The case matters well beyond CME. It lands alongside a Michigan ruling that sports prediction markets aren’t swaps and fall outside the CFTC’s jurisdiction, so the agency is being challenged on two fronts at once, both attacking the Dodd-Frank basis it used to expand into crypto perps and prediction markets.

If CME wins and perps get reclassified as swaps, the approvals that let Kalshi and Coinbase offer regulated US perps could be reopened, and the prediction-market clearances could follow. With the courts split, the question is headed for appeals and likely the Supreme Court, making it one of the bigger market-structure fights of the year.

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