Live updates: Bitcoin is stuck near $64,000 as ETF outflows reach a sixth week

Eased ETF selling and improving risk appetite are being offset by a firmer dollar and cautious institutional flows, leaving bitcoin range-bound, one analyst said.

About $10.5 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire for June on Friday on Deribit, making it one of the largest expiries of the year. Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000, while the options market's max pain price sits at $72,000, the level at which option holders would experience the greatest aggregate losses at expiry.

Market positioning remains relatively balanced, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.83, indicating slightly stronger bullish sentiment. The largest concentration of put open interest is at the $60,000 strike, suggesting a key downside support level, while the highest call open interest is clustered at $80,000, highlighting a major upside target for traders.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced he will step down, paving the way for Britain's sixth leader in seven years, with a successor expected to be in place before Parliament returns in September. Markets appear to have largely priced in the political transition, with GBP/USD slipping just 0.15% to $1.32 and the 10-year gilt yield edging up to 4.85%.

Onchain options platform Derive saw a massive "bull call spread" in HYPE over the weekend, signaling expectations of a rally to $150 by year-end.

A trader moved 50,000 contracts targeting the December 2026 expiry by buying the $100 strike call while simultaneously selling (writing) calls at the $150 strike. The so-called bull call spread is essentially a bet that HYPE is headed higher, with a specific "ceiling" of $150 in mind.

The trader wants the asset to settle well above $100 but ideally stay just under the $150 mark. This multi-leg strategy is a classic way to reduce the cost of a bullish bet while still capturing a significant move higher.

"Combined, the two legs form a bull call spread, reflecting a view that HYPE settles above $100 but below $150 by expiry," data tracking platform Laevitas said on X.

As of this writing, HYPE changed hands at $67, according to CoinDesk data.

After Thursday's selloff in Strategy's (MSTR) STRC preferred shares, which fell as low as $82.53, the stock has rebounded and is trading just below $90 in Monday pre-market action.

Bitcoin remains steady around $64,000, while Strategy (MSTR) is up roughly 1% in pre-market trading.

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor also hinted at another bitcoin purchase over the weekend. Posting on X on Sunday, he wrote: "Looks better with more dots," a phrase that the company will likely announce additional bitcoin acquisitions on Monday.

Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, per CoinDesk pricing data, still searching for a catalyst strong enough to break the range it has held for weeks.

Selling from spot bitcoin ETFs has eased from earlier this month, but fresh institutional demand has yet to return.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now posted a sixth straight week of net outflows, data shows , with only a sparse few days of green. The scale has narrowed, but the absence of any sustained inflow shows institutions remain defensive as markets reassess the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path.

A bigger weight is the rebounding dollar. After the June meeting, the Fed's cautious message weakened expectations for near-term rate cuts, lifting the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against major currencies, to the 100.6-100.8 area while keeping Treasury yields high.

With liquidity still tight, capital favors assets with steadier yields over volatile ones like bitcoin.

Easing geopolitical tension after the U.S.-Iran deal has improved risk appetite, a short-term support. It has not been strong enough to offset the firmer dollar and the cautious flows.

Bitcoin will likely hold a $60,000 to $67,000 range in the near term, said Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, in emailed comments to CoinDesk. The market is "balanced between supportive and restrictive forces," he said, with eased ETF selling and better sentiment on one side and an unsupportive Fed and unconfirmed institutional flows on the other.

A sustainable recovery in the second half would need more time to accumulate, a return of ETF inflows and stronger institutional demand. Until then, the current rebounds look technical rather than the start of a new uptrend.

In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.

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