Live updates: Bitcoin bottom signal flashes as holders absorbed 125,000 BTC in June

Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio hit a level that has marked every cycle low since 2015, but in each case it preceded months of basing rather than an immediate rebound.

Markets are subdued ahead of Wednesday's U.S. open as traders await the Federal Reserve's rate decision later today, with policymakers widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

Risk assets are showing mixed performance. The Invesco QQQ is up 0.54%, while gold is little changed, down 0.08% at $4,327 per ounce. Bitcoin has slipped 1.5%, falling below $65,000, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is holding at 99.6, just under the key 100 level.

Oil remains the standout mover in recent sessions, trading around $76 per barrel as geopolitical tensions ease.

Anthony Scaramucci , CEO of Skybridge, remains firmly bullish on Bitcoin and crypto, emphasizing that he continues to hold a significant position. While acknowledging the current lack of enthusiasm across the market, he views the widespread apathy as a potential opportunity rather than a warning sign. Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to begin rallying in late 2026 and continue into early 2027. He also dismissed concerns about Strategy (MSTR), saying he believes Michael Saylor's long-term conviction will ultimately be rewarded. Drawing on nearly four decades of investing experience, Scaramucci notes that depressed RSI levels, weak sentiment, and thin market liquidity mean even modest demand could drive Bitcoin sharply higher.

Bitcoin sits around $65,000, down roughly 50% from its October all-time high, but on-chain data is flashing a historically significant signal. The RHODL Ratio which compares wealth held by long-term holders against fresh short-term capital is beginning to roll over from its peak. This precise pattern emerged at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, both of which marked the end of brutal bear markets before major recoveries followed. Long-term holders are reasserting dominance, suggesting capital rotation is shifting. If history rhymes, the worst may be behind, and Bitcoin could be quietly coiling for its next move higher.

Crypto markets slipped during European trading hours on Wednesday, easing before the Federal Reserve's decision later in the day. Bitcoin fell about 1.7% to around $65,300, with most large tokens lower on the session, CoinDesk data show.

The drop is small set against a strong week. Bitcoin is still up about 6% over seven days, ether 9%, Solana 13.5% and XRP 8%, with Hyperliquid the standout at nearly 33%. The move reads as profit-taking and consolidation after the post-peace-deal rally, not a reversal.

Traditional markets went the other way. U.S. stock futures and bonds rose and oil fell, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8% after a chipmaker-led pullback dragged equities lower on Tuesday. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%. European stocks were steady, though BMW slid 11% after cutting its profit forecast on a worsening China car market.

Everything now waits on the Fed. Today's decision is Kevin Warsh's first as chair, with a rate hold nearly fully priced in, the focus falls on the updated projections and Warsh's tone on inflation.

A dovish lean could extend crypto's recovery, while a hawkish one could deepen the pullback.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% as policymakers continue to navigate persistently elevated inflation. This will be the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. While markets initially anticipated interest-rate cuts and a more accommodative policy stance under Warsh, expectations have shifted to a more hawkish direction, with investors now pricing in a 25 basis-point hike by January 2027. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran agreement has pushed Brent crude back to around $75 per barrel, returning oil prices to pre-conflict levels, which will be disinflationary. Investors will also be closely watching the Fed's dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections for clues on the path of monetary policy.

Bitcoin spot ETFs appear to have stemmed their heavy outflow streak after shedding more than $5 billion since May 15, according to SoSoValue data .

Over the past three trading sessions, U.S. ETFs have recorded net inflows on two occasions: $10 million on Tuesday and $86 million on Friday. While modest, the positive flows suggest that the worst of the recent selling pressure may be easing. BlackRock's IBIT has continued to attract demand, adding a total in excess of $150 million over four consecutive days.

Even so, the sector has still recorded $54 million in net outflows so far this week, putting it on track for a sixth straight week of withdrawals.

The key question now is whether spot the bitcoin ETFs can halt the outflow trend and return to sustained inflows.

Bitcoin's (BTC) order book on Binance is flashing a notable bullish shift beneath the surface of recent price action.

The order book imbalance, which measures buy-side liquidity relative to sell-side liquidity, has surged to its highest level since at least February 2024, according to data tracked by Glassnode.

The rising imbalance indicates that passive buy orders are stacking up more aggressively relative to sell orders. This pattern typically signals renewed investor demand, with investors willing to absorb the available supply of coins.

This bullish shift on the world's largest exchange by trading volume comes as BTC has bounced to $66,000 from recent lows below $60,000. Whether this order book shift marks the onset of a sustained bull run remains to be seen.

Bitcoin's risk-adjusted return has fallen to a level that has marked every bear-market bottom of the past decade, the latest on-chain reading to point toward accumulation rather than more downside.

The Sharpe ratio, which measures return against volatility, dropped to -20 on June 11, according to CryptoQuant data reviewed by CoinDesk. It hit that mark at the 2015, 2018-19 and 2022-23 cycle lows.

The catch is what came next. In all three cases, -20 marked the start of a long base rather than a launch. The metric stayed below the line for about five months in 2015 and roughly three months each in 2018-19 and 2022-23 before bitcoin began a durable recovery. So the signal can be interpreted as the floor is forming, not that the rebound has arrived.

Meanwhile, Accumulator wallets, the addresses with a history of holding rather than selling, took in about 125,000 BTC in the first half of June.

Exchange reserves have fallen roughly 80,000 BTC since February to about 2.71 million, and whales pulled more than 11,000 off exchanges in the past day.

This is the latest in a run of on-chain bottom signals over two weeks, after similar calls from valuation and sentiment gauges. They measure accumulation and exhaustion, not flows, and the driver of bitcoin's recovery from its $59,130 low to about $65,800 was the US-Iran deal, not the metrics, per CoinDesk data.

Today's FOMC decision, Kevin Warsh's first as chair, is the next test. A hold is nearly fully priced, so the dot plot and Warsh's tone on inflation will decide whether the recovery extends.

In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.

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