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Bitcoin BTC $ 64,010.98 has recently been flirting with a level that has historically proved a near-perfect entry point for bulls, generating handsome returns, crypto exchange Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo t...
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Bitcoin BTC $ 64,010.98 has recently been flirting with a level that has historically proved a near-perfect entry point for bulls, generating handsome returns, crypto exchange Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo told CoinDesk.
That level is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which represents the token's average price over that period, providing traders with a clear glimpse of the long-term trend while cutting through day-to-day noise.
Twice in the past two weeks, BTC dipped briefly below its 200-week SMA before climbing back above it by the end of each week. As of writing, bitcoin is trading at $63,900, just above the 200-week SMA of $62,358.
That's notable because, as per Perfumo, closes below this level have been rare, occurring on only about 10% of trading days since mid-2017, and have historically marked unusually attractive entry points for buyers.
"Historically, buyers at this level have gone on to see median returns north of 113% over the following year and 313% over two years," Perfumo said in an email.
Median here means that if you lined up every single time someone bought BTC below the 200-week SMA and ranked their returns from worst to best, then 113% is the return that sits right in the middle. It also means half of those buyers enjoyed higher returns than that while the rest ended with less. That's different from a simple average return, which can get skewed by one or two big outliers, or extraordinary gains.
The story gets even more positive. Not only has buying below the 200-week average produced triple-digit gains over one- and two-year periods, but the pain of holding through that period has been limited.
"For those who accumulated below the 200-week MA, the median time to break even on their investment has been just two days, while the median maximum drawdown over the subsequent year has been only 9%," Perfumo noted.
However, he was careful to caveat the data, stressing that "past performance is no guarantee of future results. But the historical record makes a clear case: at these levels, bitcoin has tended to offer immense value."
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
Disclosure & Polices : CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies . CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of Bullish (NYSE:BLSH), an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services. Bullish owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets and CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish equity-based compensation.
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