Bitcoin’s Bearish Options Positioning Hints At Drop To $55K

Rising demand for put options and persistent ETF outflows highlight Bitcoin's weakness despite lower oil prices.

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $61,000 mark since Thursday, despite optimism fueled by lower crude oil prices following the US and Iran's 60-day ceasefire agreement. Demand for downside Bitcoin price protection jumped to unusually high levels, prompting traders to question whether $55,000 is the next target.

Deribit Bitcoin options premium put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas

The premium paid on Bitcoin put (sell) options on Deribit totaled $115 million on Friday, 7 times the $16 million paid on call (buy) options. The imbalance was the highest in over 12 months, signaling extremely low demand from bulls. However, such data does not necessarily signal conviction from bears.

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew stood at 19% on Monday, meaning market makers are unwilling to hold downside price exposure. This setup hints at fear, although that has been the norm for the past 4 weeks. Data aligns with growing demand for bearish hedging as Bitcoin price struggles to sustain levels above $60,000.

Bitcoin’s weakness can be partially pinned to investors’ discomfort with MicroStrategy (MSTR US) ability to pay dividends and debt maturing in 2027. The company reacted on Monday by announcing an additional $1.2 billion in cash from recent share sales and setting aside $1.25 billion in Bitcoin for eventual sale.

The measures taken by Strategy ease some short-term concerns but also create anxiety about Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. Even if no sales occur over the next couple of months, bears are more comfortable knowing that Strategy has no incentives to issue MSTR shares given the current 17 months of dividend coverage.

Related: Grayscale's Pandl says Strategy should sell $3B Bitcoin to restore confidence

In contrast to Bitcoin investors’ pessimism, momentum in the US stock market has shifted favorably after inflationary pressure eased, with crude oil prices dropping to their lowest levels in 4 months. Additionally, a Goldman Sachs report projected 22% annual earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, easing concerns about excessive valuations.

Source: X/ KobeissiLetter

Retail investors appear to be rotating out of gold and Bitcoin into semiconductor stocks, according to ‘The Kobeissi Letter’ analysis. Data collected by Bloomberg has shown over $20 billion in cumulative inflows in semiconductor exchange-traded funds (ETFs), triggering an 81% rally in iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX US) and 60% gains in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds weekly net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

The 7 consecutive weeks of net outflows from the US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs have shattered bulls’ hopes of a strong bounce from the $58,050 lows on June 25. Regardless of whether the sell-off can be attributed to the rotation into tech stocks, sentiment is unlikely to improve while Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see strong net outflows.

A retest of $55,000 should not be dismissed, but the increased demand for downside hedging in Bitcoin options should not be interpreted as growing confidence among bears.

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