Bitcoin Surfs Hawkish Fed, New Iran Cues With Price tapping $63,000

Bitcoin price action avoided volatility but failed to bounce from local lows after a hawkish Fed meeting and posturing over Strait of Hormuz control from Iran.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $63,000 on Friday as markets adjusted to geopolitical and macro changes.

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD locked in a tight trading range on low time frames after dropping to eight-day lows.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView

Weakness had entered after the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision , which sparked a broader risk-asset comedown.

Wednesday’s meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was the first for new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who avoided giving traders dovish signals on future policy.

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said in a statement after a unanimous board decision to keep rates at current levels.

Warsh’s tone was unusual, as expectations had seen him being accommodating to US President Donald Trump’s insistence on rate cuts. He also cut the FOMC statement length considerably, using drier language than former chair, Jerome Powell.

“We will have far less information going forward,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted in a post on X , noting that Warsh had also “dropped” its forward guidance.

Fed target rate probabilities for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a near 40% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July.

With US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, meanwhile, Bitcoin and crypto were alone in digesting the latest developments in the US-Iran war.

Related: Bitcoin tipped for Q3 'macro bottom' near $50K as major liquidity grab looms

Despite signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) , the two sides appeared far from aligned on the future road map, with Iran once more eyeing the newly reopened Strait of Hormuz oil route.

Citing Bloomberg, Kobeissi reported that traffic “cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission.”

“The MoU signed with the US only says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be free for the duration of its 60 day term,” it explained on Friday.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

WTI crude oil continued to circle $75 per barrel on the day after hitting its lowest levels since early March.

Amid the lull in risk-asset volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital hinted that Bitcoin bulls’ true test is yet to come.

“There tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets. Lesson there,” he told X followers.

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