Bitcoin Has Already Spent 42 Days Building Its Bottom, This Metric Says

Bitcoin supply in loss hit 50% nearly 50 days ago, mimicking the countdown to BTC price bear-market bottoms.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been counting down to its next bottom for nearly two months, a classic onchain metric suggests.

In its H1 2026 Round-Up report , crypto research company K33 Research flagged more than 50% of the BTC supply now being held at a loss.

A typical bear-market feature, supply in loss has become a yardstick for progress toward macro bottoms for BTC/USD.

K33 data shows that once supply in loss passes the 50% mark, the bottom has come no more than 101 days later. Bear markets have provided various time frames, with the shortest bottom “window” lasting just 13 days in 2022.

The 2018 bear market required 23 days to reach its floor, while in 2014, Bitcoin continued to decline for 101 days after the 50% supply-in-loss mark was hit.

In 2026, supply in loss repeated standard bear-market behavior, crossing 50% on June 5. Since then, 42 days have elapsed, making this year’s bottom window Bitcoin’s second-longest ever.

BTC supply in loss and days until bear-market bottom (screenshot). Source: K33 Research

In accompanying commentary, K33 observed that returns over the year following the phenomenon “tend to be very solid.”

Earlier this month, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, estimated that supply in loss was around two months away from levels that correspond to bear-market bottoms.

CryptoQuant data puts supply in loss at 46% as of July 17.

Continuing, CryptoQuant eyed what it described as “rare” readings from Bitcoin investor cost-basis models.

Related: Bitcoin $107K buyers providing ‘early signals’ of 2026 bear-market bottom: Glassnode

The realized cap variance (RCV) model, which measures the difference between realized cap and market cap, currently sits in the bottom 6% of its historical range.

“Instead of tracking price alone, it isolates the variance between realized cap and market cap relative to its own rolling history, capturing how stretched or compressed investor cost basis has become versus current valuation,” contributor Crazzyblockk explained in a QuickTake blog post on Thursday.

Bitcoin RCV data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

At -2.35, standardized RCV’s Z-score is once again pointing to the final stages of the Bitcoin bear market.

“Every prior stretch where the model spent extended time below a -2.0 z-score, late 2018, mid-2022, early 2015, preceded forward twelve-month returns north of 75%,” the post noted.

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy .

新闻图片