Bitcoin Bulls Hold $64K, But For How Long?

Bitcoin buyers have returned to spot, futures and ETF markets but geopolitical headwinds could quickly unravel the progress of the past two weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) spent the week split across two scenarios. One highlighted improving onchain buying pressure and ETF inflows, while the other remained synced to sentiment gauges and news events that projected fear.

The spot and futures cumulative volume delta, a running tally of buy and sell orders, confirmed a $925 million net buying day for Bitcoin on July 15. This orderbook activity absorbed the entire post-CPI pullback in open interest and price rather than collapsing into it. Meanwhile, the spot Bitcoin ETFs added $107.7 million in net inflows on July 15, marking the second consecutive positive day following $181 million on July 14.

Bitcoin price, funding, open interest. Source: Hyblock

Funding rates spent most of the past week between 0.10% and 0.22%, then cooled sharply to 0.048%. Paired with open interest down 3.4% from Tuesday’s peak, this suggests leverage unwinding without a corresponding price decline, as Bitcoin was down only about 1.5% over the same stretch. This suggests that the longs deleveraging are simply stepping back from the post-CPI trade to adjust for Bitcoin hitting its local range highs near $65,000 to $66,000.

Despite the traction in spot, futures, and ETF markets, market sentiment has yet to catch up. The Fear & Greed Index sits near 26, still in “Fear” territory, despite Bitcoin’s roughly 4.4% bounce off its recent $62,100 low. For traders that use the metric in a contrarian sense, positive flows holding up while sentiment stays depressed has historically been a more durable setup than a rally where sentiment has already priced in.

An alternate interpretation is that real risk-off events remain present on the horizon. This week the US war in Iran resumed, oil prices shot above $85 and projections for a Fed rate hike by September 2026 remain above 44%.

The positive data for the week do not confirm a change in trend. Yes, two days of confirmed buying are notable, but they are not decisive.

Currently, funding is cooling toward neutral, spot ETF flows remain negative for the year, and a cluster of long liquidations sits roughly 1.5% below the current price ($63,200).

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