The U.S.-Iran peace deal reached over the weekend provided the stimulus many markets had been waiting for.
Oil fell more than 4% on news the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, copper jumped. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares rallied 3% and Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a record high.
Crypto markets, however, posted muted gains after the announcement, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) little changed since midnight UTC. The measure, however, is 2.4% higher over 24 hours.
Bitcoin BTC $ 66,587.91 held below $66,000, barely moving since midnight after adding 3.4% over the weekend. Ether's (ETH) performance mirrored its larger peer. The biggest gains came in the smaller altcoins, with the CoinDesk 80 Index adding 1.5% since midnight.
The crypto market, reacting to geopolitics in the absence of industry-specific catalysts, has learned to distrust this particular headline. A ceasefire in April collapsed. U.S. strikes broke another truce on June 9. Both times, bitcoin gave back the relief rally. Today, traders appear not to be prepared to pay for an agreement that won't be signed until the end of the week.
While the market appears to have steadied after an early June rout, the onchain crowd remains split. Valuation models say the worst of the selling is done. Flow data, in contrast, says no real bid has returned. Both can be true at the same time.
The other pull is competition. SpaceX (SPCX) went public Friday in the largest IPO in history and popped 19% on day one, with ARK Invest, the fund management company led by bitcoin bull Cathie Wood, leading the charge .
OpenAI and Anthropic have filed to follow suit. The hottest innovation trade right now is a stock, not a token, and it is pulling from the same pool of risk capital.
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
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