This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here , if you haven't already.
The months of waiting have ended, and SpaceX is set to begin trading on Nasdaq today after investors pumped $75 billion into the largest IPO in history. What happens next could ripple across financial markets, including crypto.
One theory making the rounds is that recent outflows of over $5 billion from bitcoin BTC $ 63,876.41 ETFs, which dragged the price of the largest cryptocurrency below $60,000, were partly driven by investors pulling funds to participate in the IPO. If so, some of that capital could find its way back into crypto in the coming days, providing a lift to valuations.
The IPO cuts both ways. On one hand, a blockbuster debut signals broad market confidence, potentially drawing fresh capital and sustaining the risk-on mood that tends to lift bitcoin and the wider crypto market alongside equities.
On the other hand, there's a note of caution. Pseudonymous analyst Doctor Profit, who correctly called bitcoin's selloff since October, argues that record IPOs are often a hallmark of excess optimism and market tops rather than new beginnings.
"The closest comparison is Saudi Aramco at $1.70T, which went public just 10 weeks before the COVID crash in 2020. And Aramco is far from the only mega IPO that appeared near a major market top," Doctor Profit posted on X . "Always remember that the largest IPOs in history tend to arrive when optimism and euphoria is extreme, and investors are willing to pay almost any price."
Looking at the previous five largest IPOs — Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, SoftBank, NTT Mobile Communication Network and Visa — all bar NTT happened near major or interim tops in the S&P 500 Index.
If the pattern repeats, stocks could face renewed selling pressure soon, and the negative sentiment could spill over into other risk assets, including bitcoin, which then may drop below $60,000, a level it briefly breached last week before bouncing to $63,000. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ."
The chart shows that four of the top five IPOs, including Saudi Aramco's in 2019, occurred close to or at notable price tops in the S&P 500 Index.
This trend validates the narrative that record IPOs, like SpaceX's, are indicative of excess optimism and euphoria and pave the way for price declines.
io.net's IDE ties token burns to real GPU demand, replacing fixed emissions with a demand-linked model - live as of 11 June 2026.
Disclosure & Polices : CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies . CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of Bullish (NYSE:BLSH), an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services. Bullish owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets and CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish equity-based compensation.
新闻图片
